When could AI surpass us?
Your guide to artificial superintelligence: key concepts, expert forecasts, a timeline from 1950 and the organizations working on it.
What the forecasts say
Artificial general intelligence
Machines better than humans at every task
Artificial superintelligence
Middle value of current forecasts that give a year. Definitions differ between sources; the app shows each forecast with its source.
Everything in one place
Key ideas, explained
From the intelligence explosion to AI alignment: the concepts behind the debate, in plain language and linked together.
Sourced forecasts
Expert surveys, forecasting communities and lab leaders on when AGI and superintelligence could arrive, with every source linked.
A timeline from 1950
The papers, books, statements and policies that shaped thinking about superintelligence, from Turing to today.
Who is working on it
Frontier labs, safety researchers and government institutes, with what they focus on and when they started.