AI Futures Project (AI 2027)
2027Year with ~50% probability
Scenario by Daniel Kokotajlo and co-authors in which automated AI research triggers an intelligence explosion and superintelligence arrives in late 2027. 2027 was the most likely single year; the lead author's median was already about 2028.
↻ This forecast was later updated. See the newer one →Source
AI 2027 (April 2025)
Open source ↗