When could it arrive?
Predictions from surveys, forecasters and lab leaders. Definitions differ, so compare within a target.
Dashed line = today. Dot = year with ~50% probability.
AI Futures Project
Made 2026 · ~50% by 2034Updated model after progress came slower and more uneven than in AI 2027: fully autonomous coding moved to the early 2030s and superintelligence to around 2034.
Metaculus community
Made 2026 · ~50% by 2031Community median for the flagship "date of AGI" question was around 2031 in early 2026, down from roughly 50 years away in 2020. Live question: check the source for the current value.
AI Futures Project (AI 2027)
Made 2025 · ~50% by 2027Scenario by Daniel Kokotajlo and co-authors in which automated AI research triggers an intelligence explosion and superintelligence arrives in late 2027. 2027 was the most likely single year; the lead author's median was already about 2028.
Dario Amodei
Made 2024 · as early as 2026Anthropic CEO wrote that "powerful AI" (smarter than a Nobel laureate across most fields) could arrive as early as 2026, while noting uncertainty.
Sam Altman
Made 2024 · a few thousand days (roughly 2030-2035)OpenAI CEO wrote that superintelligence is possible within a few thousand days, may take longer, and that he is confident it will arrive.
AI Impacts survey (ESPAI 2023)
Made 2023 · ~50% by 2116The same researchers expected full automation of all occupations much later: 10% by 2037 and 50% by 2116, versus 2164 in the 2022 survey.
AI Impacts survey (ESPAI 2023)
Made 2023 · ~50% by 2047Survey of 2,778 researchers from six top AI venues. Assuming science continues undisrupted, 10% chance machines outperform humans at every task by 2027 and 50% by 2047, 13 years earlier than the 2022 survey.
Ajeya Cotra (Open Philanthropy)
Made 2022 · ~50% by 2040Two-year update after rapid progress in language models moved the median about ten years earlier, from ~2050 to ~2040.
AI Impacts survey (ESPAI 2022)
Made 2022 · ~50% by 2060Survey of NeurIPS and ICML authors. The aggregate forecast put a 50% chance of high-level machine intelligence around 2060.
Ajeya Cotra (Open Philanthropy)
Made 2020 · ~50% by 2050The "biological anchors" report compared training compute to biological benchmarks and gave a median of about 2050 for transformative AI.
Müller & Bostrom expert survey
Made 2013 · ~50% by 2040Survey of four expert groups in 2012/2013. Median respondent gave even odds of high-level machine intelligence around 2040-2050 and 90% by 2075, and expected superintelligence to follow within 30 years. About one in three chance the outcome is bad or extremely bad for humanity.
Ray Kurzweil
Made 2005 · ~50% by 2045Predicts the singularity around 2045, after machines reach human-level intelligence around 2029.