AI Impacts survey (ESPAI 2023)
2116Year with ~50% probability
The same researchers expected full automation of all occupations much later: 10% by 2037 and 50% by 2116, versus 2164 in the 2022 survey.
Probability by year
203710%
211650%
Source
Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI (Grace et al.)
Open source ↗