AI Impacts survey (ESPAI 2023)
2047Year with ~50% probability
Survey of 2,778 researchers from six top AI venues. Assuming science continues undisrupted, 10% chance machines outperform humans at every task by 2027 and 50% by 2047, 13 years earlier than the 2022 survey.
Probability by year
202710%
204750%
Source
Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI (Grace et al.)
Open source ↗