Müller & Bostrom expert survey

Survey · Made 2013

2040Year with ~50% probability

Survey of four expert groups in 2012/2013. Median respondent gave even odds of high-level machine intelligence around 2040-2050 and 90% by 2075, and expected superintelligence to follow within 30 years. About one in three chance the outcome is bad or extremely bad for humanity.