Forecasts
When could it arrive?
Predictions from surveys, forecasters and lab leaders. Definitions differ, so compare within a target.
20252050207521002125
Dashed line = today. Dot = year with ~50% probability.
AGI
Metaculus community
Made 2026 · ~50% by 2031Community median for the flagship "date of AGI" question was around 2031 in early 2026, down from roughly 50 years away in 2020. Live question: check the source for the current value.
AGI
Dario Amodei
Made 2024 · as early as 2026Anthropic CEO wrote that "powerful AI" (smarter than a Nobel laureate across most fields) could arrive as early as 2026, while noting uncertainty.