Forecasts
When could it arrive?
Predictions from surveys, forecasters and lab leaders. Definitions differ, so compare within a target.
20252050207521002125
Dashed line = today. Dot = year with ~50% probability.
Transformative AI
Ajeya Cotra (Open Philanthropy)
Made 2022 · ~50% by 2040Two-year update after rapid progress in language models moved the median about ten years earlier, from ~2050 to ~2040.
Transformative AIUpdated later
Ajeya Cotra (Open Philanthropy)
Made 2020 · ~50% by 2050The "biological anchors" report compared training compute to biological benchmarks and gave a median of about 2050 for transformative AI.