Forecasts
When could it arrive?
Predictions from surveys, forecasters and lab leaders. Definitions differ, so compare within a target.
20252050207521002125
Dashed line = today. Dot = year with ~50% probability.
Superintelligence
AI Futures Project
Made 2026 · ~50% by 2034Updated model after progress came slower and more uneven than in AI 2027: fully autonomous coding moved to the early 2030s and superintelligence to around 2034.
SuperintelligenceUpdated later
AI Futures Project (AI 2027)
Made 2025 · ~50% by 2027Scenario by Daniel Kokotajlo and co-authors in which automated AI research triggers an intelligence explosion and superintelligence arrives in late 2027. 2027 was the most likely single year; the lead author's median was already about 2028.
Superintelligence
Sam Altman
Made 2024 · a few thousand days (roughly 2030-2035)OpenAI CEO wrote that superintelligence is possible within a few thousand days, may take longer, and that he is confident it will arrive.