When could it arrive?
Predictions from surveys, forecasters and lab leaders. Definitions differ, so compare within a target.
Dashed line = today. Dot = year with ~50% probability.
AI Impacts survey (ESPAI 2023)
Made 2023 · ~50% by 2047Survey of 2,778 researchers from six top AI venues. Assuming science continues undisrupted, 10% chance machines outperform humans at every task by 2027 and 50% by 2047, 13 years earlier than the 2022 survey.
AI Impacts survey (ESPAI 2022)
Made 2022 · ~50% by 2060Survey of NeurIPS and ICML authors. The aggregate forecast put a 50% chance of high-level machine intelligence around 2060.
Müller & Bostrom expert survey
Made 2013 · ~50% by 2040Survey of four expert groups in 2012/2013. Median respondent gave even odds of high-level machine intelligence around 2040-2050 and 90% by 2075, and expected superintelligence to follow within 30 years. About one in three chance the outcome is bad or extremely bad for humanity.